FORECASTING GDP GROWTH RATE IN UKRAINE WITH ALTERNATIVE MODELS

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ABSTRACT

The problem of constructing mathematical model for short-term forecasting of GDP is considered. First, extended autoregression is constructed that takes two additional independent variables into  consideration. The model resulted provides a possibility for generating short-term forecasts of GDP though not of high quality. Another model was constructed in the form of a Bayesian network. The model turned out to be better than the multiple regression, it provides quite good estimates for probabilities of GDP growth direction.

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HOW TO CITE THIS PAPER

Karayuz, I., & Bidyuk, P. (2015). Forecasting GDP growth rate in Ukraine with alternative models. Applied Computer Science, 11(3), 88-97. 
Karayuz, Iryna, and Petro Bidyuk. "Forecasting Gdp Growth Rate in Ukraine with Alternative Models." Applied Computer Science 11, no. 3 (2015): 88-97.
I. Karayuz and P. Bidyuk, "Forecasting GDP growth rate in Ukraine with alternative models," Applied Computer Science, vol. 11, no. 3, pp. 88-97, 2015.
Karayuz I, Bidyuk P. Forecasting GDP growth rate in Ukraine with alternative models. Applied Computer Science. 2015;11(3):88-97.
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